Introduction We are writing this on April 7th, just days after Trump’s “Liberation Day”. What a calamity! The Index is down 10.4% in two days (in EUR terms)1, 2. The “Trump Bump” has turned into a “Trump Slump”. And to think just a few months it seemed universally accepted that [...]
Introduction If you had asked us in late September about the short term market ramifications of a Trump election win, we would have refused to answer. Not because we don’t think about these things. Rather, because they are not knowable (despite what “so-called” experts may profess). But if pressed, perhaps [...]
Introduction The bull market continues. Equity markets in the main posted strongly positive returns, but masked some heightened volatility in early August - reportedly sparked by the 0.25% hike in Japanese interest rates and the release of a poorer than expected US jobs report. In three days the Japanese equity [...]
Introduction The Fund retreated by 2.3%, 3.0% and 5.3% in EUR, USD and AUD terms. Longer term performance is provided in Table 4. The AI euphoria continues. Some are comparing the current environment with the dot-com bubble of the late 1990’s. We are reminded of Scott McNealy (the former CEO [...]
Introduction You’ve heard it before. The index is extremely polarised, with a select few stocks driving returns. Recently, we can single out Nvidia (up 82.5% for the quarter, 225.4% for the year) and Meta (up 37.3% for the quarter, 129.4% for the year). There are more than 1,500 MSCI World [...]
Introduction Despite wars in Europe and the Middle East, escalating tensions in Taiwan, recent attacks in the Red Sea, and eleven successive US Fed rate rises since March 2022, equity markets have reached new highs. It is as if nothing happened. The recent reversal of longer term interest rates [...]
Introduction It’s not rocket science… The US 10-year bond yield rose from 3.8% to 4.6% during the quarter. It was last around this level in the period leading up to the global financial crisis (in 2007). And for the 25 years prior it averaged about 7.5%. Heck, many of [...]
Introduction We continue to be amazed at the strength of the equity markets. Rising interest rates, war in Europe, heightened global tensions, colossal government and private debt levels, recent bank collapses… And yet the markets are near all time highs! "War, huh, yeah, What is it good for? Absolutely [...]
Introduction The equity markets started the year with a strong January but this largely tempered in February. Then, quite perversely (in the midst of the Silicon Valley bank collapsing, the US Fed stepping in to guarantee deposits, and Credit Suisse and First National bank being rescued), markets rebounded to end [...]
Introduction What an eventful year. The pandemic became endemic, a relentless war has unfolded, a new multi-billion dollar Ponzi scheme came to light (and the perpetrator of an earlier one was convicted), and - with probably the greatest effect in the markets - inflation has proved persistent and interest rates [...]
